From Record Highs to Resilient Lows: How Marin County Defied Expectations in Q4 2023 Real Estate

In the tumultuous landscape of the real estate market in 2023, Marin County faced a wave of challenges, from soaring interest rates to market uncertainties and a scarcity of property listings. However, as we delve into the Q4 data, signs of positivity emerge revealing promising trends that signal a potential turnaround for the county’s real estate market.

Q4 2023

COMPARED TO Q4 2022

$1.699M

MEDIAN SALES PRICE UP 3% ▲

$968

MEDIAN PRICE/SQFT UP 6% ▲

41

AVG. DAYS ON MARKET UP 2% ▲

372

PROPERTIES SOLD DOWN 6% ▼

MONTH-OVER-MONTH COMPARISON

2023

KEY TRENDS

Sales Volume Decline and Market Challenges: 2023 was marked by a noticeable decrease in sales volume, caused by elevated interest rates and uncertainties in financial markets. Both buyers and sellers showed hesitation to enter the market. Sellers felt they wouldn’t get a good price for their homes preventing them from going on the market, while buyers faced a new reality of a decreased budget with interest rates in the 6%-7% range.

Positive Shift in November and December: Despite the hurdles encountered throughout the year, the months of November and December brought a positive shift in the real estate landscape. The standout revelation is the surpassing of median sales prices for single-family homes, exceeding figures from the previous quarter.

Q4 Decline in Interest Rates: One key factor contributing to this positive trend is the substantial decline in interest rates. Since their peak in October, interest rates have dropped by more than a full percent. Currently hovering in the mid-six range, these lower rates are anticipated to stimulate potential sellers, particularly those who were previously discouraged by the mortgage lock-in effect.

Rise in Median Price and Average Price per Square Foot: The median price exhibited a positive trajectory, rising by 4.6% from Q3 to Q4 2023. Additionally, the average price per square foot increased by 4.8%, reaching $968. These indicators reflect a market that, despite challenges, demonstrated resilience and potential for growth.

Motivating Potential Sellers: The decline in interest rates not only makes homeownership more attractive for buyers but also serves as a motivating factor for potential sellers. Those who hesitated due to the mortgage lock-in effect may now find renewed confidence in entering the market, leading to an increase in available properties.

Federal Reserve's Influence: The optimistic outlook is further fueled by the prospect of the Federal Reserve lowering its benchmark rate in response to falling inflation. This potential move by the Fed adds another layer of positivity to the real estate market, as it may contribute to sustained lower interest rates.

2024 is Looking Up: As we look ahead, these positive shifts in the real estate landscape paint a brighter picture for Marin County in the coming year. The combination of lower interest rates, increased median sales prices, and potential Federal Reserve actions creates an environment conducive to a more robust and dynamic real estate market.

2023 v. 2022

$1.675M

MEDIAN SALES PRICE DOWN 7% ▼ FROM $1.8M IN 2022

$871

MEDIAN PRICE/SQFT DOWN 6.3% ▼ FROM $930 IN 2022

17

MEDIAN DAYS ON MARKET UP 31% ▲ FROM 13 DAYS IN 2022

1,608

PROPERTIES SOLD DOWN 24% ▼ FROM 2,119 PROPERTIES IN 2022

Answers to our clients’ FAQs:

Q: How will the previous year's decline in sales and high mortgage rates impact the selling price of my home in Marin County in 2024?

Answer: The challenges faced in 2023, including a 7.0% decline in sales and high mortgage rates, did influence the market dynamics. However, the positive shift in median prices by 4.6% from Q3 to Q4 2023 indicates a potential upward trajectory. As mortgage rates are on a decline and the Federal Reserve projects rate cuts in 2024, it suggests a more favorable environment for sellers, potentially contributing to a healthier and more competitive market.

Q: How can I ensure my home stands out in a competitive market like Marin County in 2024?

Answer: To ensure your home stands out in Marin’s competitive market in 2024, focus on enhancing curb appeal, staging your home effectively, and pricing it competitively based on current market trends. At Own Marin, our goal is to help you understand the local market dynamics and implement strategic marketing tactics that will increase your home's visibility and attract potential buyers.

Q: With the recent decline in interest rates and the Federal Reserve's projected rate cuts, is now a good time for me to consider purchasing a home in Marin County?

Answer: Yes, the recent decline in interest rates, especially after their peak in October 2023, makes the current market favorable for homebuyers. The potential Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2024 are expected to contribute to a more buyer-friendly environment, offering you an advantageous window to explore and invest in the Marin County real estate market.

Q: How does the low inventory in Q4 2023 impact my home buying options in Marin County, and should I be concerned about finding the right property?

Answer: The low inventory levels observed in Q4 2023 did create a competitive market, but the anticipated decline in mortgage rates and potential rate cuts in 2024 may lead to an increase in available properties. While the market might still be competitive, staying informed and working closely with a knowledgeable real estate professional can help you navigate the challenges and identify the right property for your needs in Marin County.

Q: Is it a bad time to sell a home?

A: No! Buyer demand is very strong heading into 2024 and those looking to move this year are eager to jump at new inventory. Inventory levels are expected to remain low throughout 2024, which may keep sales volumes low but competition strong on desirable properties in sought-after locations. Monitoring market updates, economic indicators, and changes in buyer preferences will help anticipate any shifts that may impact the market. It’s also very clear that well-prepped, turnkey homes are performing better and continue to receive multiple offers. We're always happy to provide a complimentary consultation on what your home could trade for in today's shifting market.

Q: Considering the fluctuations in the real estate market and the anticipated changes in interest rates, how can both buyers and sellers position themselves for success in Marin County in 2024?

Answer: Both buyers and sellers can position themselves for success by staying informed about market trends and seeking guidance from experienced real estate professionals. For buyers, taking advantage of the current decline in interest rates and potential rate cuts in 2024 can be strategic. It’s also important to be working with an agent who can provide you with both on and off-market opportunities. Sellers, on the other hand, should be aware of the changing dynamics, including the impact of lower rates on potential buyers. Engaging with a trusted real estate agent, understanding local market conditions and what buyers are looking for in a home, and being flexible in negotiations can be key strategies for both buyers and sellers to navigate and thrive in the evolving real estate landscape in Marin County.

Thinking of making a move this year?

Our team is happy to provide a complimentary consultation to answer your questions and help set you up for success. Feel free to reach out to one of our team members to get started.