In Q3 2023, the Marin County median home price fell 11% quarter-over-quarter and 9% year-over-year. As interest rates continue to climb and home insurance becomes more expensive and challenging to obtain, Marin County home prices haven't been able to sustain the rapid price growth experienced in 2021 and 2022.

Q3 2023

YEAR-OVER-YEAR COMPARISON

The third quarter of 2023 brought a mix of familiar yet distinctive trends to the Marin housing market. In Q3, we observed our typical seasonal fluctuations with the median price taking an 11.2% dip from Q2 to Q3 2023, and the average price per square foot also seeing a 6.5% decline. Inventory levels, sales, listings under contract, and new listings followed their annual third-quarter pattern, all showing a drop.

However, the housing market had a unique twist this time due to factors like high interest rates and low inventory. Mortgage rates reached a 23-year high by the end of Q3 2023, with the average 30-year mortgage rate peaking at 7.31%. As these rates climbed higher, we saw a decrease in market participants as potential buyers found themselves priced out of the market. This situation can be attributed to the fact that many homeowners had either purchased or refinanced their homes at historically low rates in 2020 and 2021, which, in turn, has resulted in a scarcity of new listings. When we compare the cumulative new listings in the first three quarters of 2023 to the same period in 2022, we observe a substantial 28.9% decline.

This shortage of new listings is a significant factor contributing to the 31% decline in sales over the same period. As we look ahead to the fourth quarter, we anticipate fewer sales and decreased inventory, but we also expect prices to stabilize in the winter months. So, while the market may continue to present challenges, the unique character of Marin endures, and we're here to help you navigate these changes with confidence.

Answers to our clients’ FAQs:

Q: What can we expect from the Marin County real estate market in the near future?

A: The market is expected to continue seeing low inventory levels throughout the remainder of the year. Competition among buyers may increase due to limited supply. However, interest rates are starting to eliminate buyers in certain price ranges as rates are prohibiting affordability.

Q: How have mortgage rates impacted the Marin County market?

A: In the past month, mortgage rates reached a 23-year high with the average 30-year mortgage rate peaking at 7.31%. We are also expected to see one more rate hike this year. As rates climb higher, we are seeing a decrease in market participants as potential buyers are finding themselves priced out of the market.

Q: How can I navigate the market as a buyer or seller in Marin County?

A: To navigate the market effectively, it's crucial to stay informed about pricing trends, neighborhood dynamics, and inventory levels. Working with an experienced real estate agent who has local market expertise can provide valuable guidance and insights.

Q: Is it a good time to buy a house?

A: Despite the increase in interest rates, now is actually a good time to think about buying a house while less buyers are in the market. If you're holding out for mortgage rates to drop, you might be in for a long wait. And when those rates finally do dip, you can bet that the housing market will get very competitive again.

Q: Is it a bad time to sell a home?

A: Not necessarily! Inventory levels are expected to remain low throughout 2023, which could keep sales volumes low but competition strong on desirable properties in sought-after locations. Monitoring market updates, economic indicators, and changes in buyer preferences will help anticipate any shifts that may impact the market. It’s also very clear that well-prepped, turnkey homes are performing better and continue to receive multiple offers. We're always happy to provide a complimentary consultation on what your home could trade for in today's shifting market.

Q: How can Own Marin assist me in buying or selling a property in Marin County?

A: Own Marin offers expertise and guidance in the Marin County real estate market. Our team can provide insights, personalized advice, access to off-market homes for sale for home buyers and to a network of professionals to help expertly prep your home for sale.

Thinking of selling your home?

Our team is happy to provide a complimentary home evaluation if you’re curious what your home would trade for in today’s market. If you’re considering making a move, reach out to one of our team members anytime.