Diving into Marin County's Q2 Real Estate Market Trends & Forecast

Despite facing challenges like higher interest rates, reduced inventory, inflation, economic uncertainty, and high-tech sector layoffs, Marin County real estate has shown noticeable resilience in 2023. Join us as we dive into pricing trends and offer an outlook for this ever-evolving market.

Yearly Comparison

Q2 2023 VS. Q2 2022

$1.789M

MEDIAN SALES PRICE DOWN 10.6% ▼

$921

MEDIAN PRICE/SQFT DOWN 8.4% ▼

14

AVG. DAYS ON MARKET UP 55.6% ▲

543

PROPERTIES SOLD DOWN 27.5% ▼

Market Performance

The second quarter of 2023 brought a glimmer of hope after a sluggish start in Q1. While we're not quite back to the levels of last year, we're pleased to witness positive momentum building in Q2. The market's recovery has been influenced by various factors, including limited inventory and economic uncertainty causing some buyers to dive back into the market. Certain neighborhoods have emerged as beacons of resilience, including Belvedere, Tiburon, Mill Valley, Larkspur, Corte Madera and Kentfield and it’s clear that turnkey, well-prepped homes in desirable locations are outperforming other properties for sale.

Pricing Trends

In our vibrant Marin County market, pricing remains dynamic, requiring a street-level understanding for accurate analysis. Multiple offers and properties selling above their asking prices have become the norm in desirable neighborhoods that are often walkable to local amenities, within admirable school districts and within close proximity to San Francisco for commuters. We’re finding that properties meeting these top demands continue to sell quickly and with multiple offers.

Sales, Inventory, and Pricing

After peaking in Q2 2022, prices, sales, and inventory experienced a downward trend through Q1 2023. The first quarter often sees a dip in sales before bouncing back in the second quarter, and Q2 2023 was no exception. While inventory and sales are hitting all-time lows, we still saw an influx of new listings in Marin and buyers found more opportunities which drove up pricing and injected fresh energy into the market.

Market Outlook

As we look ahead to the third quarter, we anticipate another spike in sales and inventory, aligning with historical trends of a busier Fall Market. There’s still a high volume of buyers currently shopping for homes and the supply-demand imbalance is expected to intensify competition in Q3 in favor of home sellers, even though we may see fewer transactions than years past due to limited inventory.

Mortgage Rates

Mortgage rates continue to be a key consideration for both buyers and sellers. After reaching a 20-year high of 7.08% in Q4 2022, average 30-year mortgage rates have gradually decreased, ranging between 6.09% and 6.73% in the first half of 2023. However, mid-July saw rates climb to the highest point of the year at 6.96%. These fluctuations may help moderate excess demand in the Marin County market.

While the Marin County real estate market showcased signs of recovery in Q2 2023, we’re finding strategic ways to navigate through the present challenges with success for our clients. We’re keeping a close eye on interest rates as they continue to influence buyer behavior, while positioning our sellers homes to command market attention amidst low inventory levels. If you’re thinking of making a move this year, contact us! Own Marin is dedicated to providing valuable insights and guidance as you navigate the ever-changing real estate landscape.

Monthly Comparison

2ND QUARTER 2023

Answers to our clients FAQs:

Q: What can we expect from the Marin County real estate market in the near future?

A: The market is expected to face historically low inventory levels throughout 2023, but we will still see a spike in inventory come August through October for our Fall market. Competition among buyers may increase due to limited supply. It's important to keep an eye on mortgage rates, as they can influence buyer behavior.

Q: How have mortgage rates impacted the Marin County market?

A: Mortgage rates reached a 20-year high in Q4 2022 but have gradually decreased since then. However, in mid-July 2023, rates reached their highest point for the year. There is rumor that interest rates are going to increase two more times in 2023.

Q: How can I navigate the market as a buyer or seller in Marin County?

A: To navigate the market effectively, it's crucial to stay informed about pricing trends, neighborhood dynamics, and inventory levels. Working with an experienced real estate agent who has local market expertise can provide valuable guidance and insights.

Q: Are there any expectations for future changes in the Marin County real estate market?

A: Inventory levels are expected to remain low throughout 2023, which could keep sales volumes depressed but competition strong on desirable properties. Monitoring market updates, economic indicators, and changes in buyer preferences will help anticipate any shifts that may impact the market. It’s also very clear that well-prepped, turnkey homes are performing better and continue to receive multiple offers.

Q: How can Own Marin assist me in buying or selling a property in Marin County?

A: Own Marin offers expertise and guidance in the Marin County real estate market. Our team can provide insights, personalized advice, access to off-market homes for sale for home buyers and to a network of professionals to help expertly prep your home for sale.

Thinking of making a move?

Our team is happy to provide a complimentary home evaluation if you’re curious what your home would trade for in today’s market. If you’re considering making a move, reach out to one of our team members anytime.